BP’s latest annual outlook issues a direct warning to governments: the intense focus on energy security in response to geopolitical instability is actively undermining and slowing climate mitigation efforts. The report confirms this risk by raising its long-term oil and gas demand forecasts, signaling that the 2050 net-zero target is unlikely.
BP’s revised figures indicate a persistent reliance on hydrocarbons. Oil consumption in 2050 is now projected to hit 83 million barrels per day (b/d), an 8% increase from the previous 77 million b/d estimate. Natural gas demand is similarly forecast to remain elevated at 4,806 billion cubic meters annually in 2050. Furthermore, BP has delayed the expected date of peak oil demand by five years, now projecting 103 million b/d in 2030.
BP’s chief economist attributes the slowdown to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside rising trade tariffs, which intensify national demands for domestic energy supplies. While this push for self-sufficiency might create low-carbon ‘electrostates,’ the report highlights the critical risk: an increased preference for domestically produced fossil fuels over imported alternatives, thereby slowing global decarbonization efforts.
The report delivers a critical warning regarding climate thresholds. BP’s modeling shows that the current energy trajectory risks exceeding the 2∘C carbon budget limit by the early 2040s. This extended delay, the company cautions, will raise the economic and social costs required for future climate stabilization. To hit the net-zero goal, oil demand must fall aggressively to about 35 million b/d by 2050.
Despite the rapid and necessary deployment of renewable technologies—which are set to meet over 80% of new electricity demand by 2035—oil will remain the largest single source of primary global energy supply, holding a 30% share in 2035. Renewables are not expected to surpass oil’s market share until the late 2040s, illustrating the deep structural inertia exacerbated by current government priorities.