The U.S.-China trade dispute has devolved into a high-stakes poker game, with the global economy as the pot. President Donald Trump has just made a massive raise with his 100% tariff threat, and China, rather than folding, has called the bet, declaring it is “not afraid” and will see the hand through.
Trump’s move was a classic, aggressive play designed to push his opponent off the hand. The sheer size of the bet—a tariff so large it would cripple trade—was intended to signal overwhelming strength and force an immediate fold from Beijing. It was a bet that China could not possibly call without risking its entire stack.
However, China’s response was a steely-eyed call. The promise of “resolute measures” was the equivalent of pushing its own chips into the middle. Beijing is signaling that it believes it has a strong enough hand—or enough economic resilience—to withstand the pressure. It is challenging the U.S. and suggesting that Trump might be bluffing.
The other players at the table—the rest of the world’s economies—are watching in horror. The size of the pot has grown so large that everyone at the table will be affected by the outcome. The market’s panicked reaction, with a $2 trillion loss, is the sound of the other players cashing out their smaller chips and running for cover.
Now, the world waits for the next card to be dealt. The initial bet has been called, and the stakes have been raised to a terrifying new level. This high-stakes poker game is far from over, and a miscalculation by either of the main players could cause the entire table to collapse.