President Donald Trump’s new proposal is the definition of a high-risk, high-reward strategy, designed to break the grinding stalemate in the Ukraine war. He is betting that a dramatic escalation on the economic front can achieve a breakthrough where the military conflict has become deadlocked.
The high reward is the potential for a swift end to the war. If the plan works as intended, the combined pressure of a full oil embargo and crippling tariffs on China could collapse the Russian economy and force Moscow to the negotiating table on Western terms, saving countless lives and resources.
The high risk, however, is monumental. The plan could fail to achieve its objective while causing severe damage to the global economy, triggering a worldwide recession. It could also fracture the NATO alliance if members cannot agree to the painful measures, leaving the West weaker and more divided than before.
This is a gambler’s throw. Trump is pushing all his economic chips to the center of the table, hoping for a quick and decisive win. The outcome is far from certain, but he has clearly decided that the risks of a protracted, inconclusive conflict are greater than the risks of his own audacious plan.