While hopes are high for a breakthrough, a dangerous question looms over the Trump-Netanyahu summit: what happens if the talks fail? The consequences of a collapsed peace process could be severe, potentially leading to an escalation of the conflict and a further destabilization of the entire Middle East.
If Netanyahu rejects the U.S. plan and the summit ends in deadlock, the most immediate consequence would likely be an intensification of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. Feeling that the diplomatic track has been exhausted, the Israeli government might launch a final, all-out assault to achieve its goal of “finishing the job,” leading to an even greater humanitarian disaster.
A failure would also represent a major diplomatic crisis between the U.S. and Israel. A public rejection of a major U.S. presidential initiative could lead to unprecedented friction, potentially impacting American diplomatic support at the UN and other forms of aid. The “special relationship” would be under severe strain.
Regionally, the collapse of the talks would be a blow to the Arab states that invested political capital in backing the U.S. plan. It could halt or even reverse the trend of Arab-Israeli normalization, as these states would be reluctant to move forward with an Israel that is seen as rejecting peace.
For the hostages and their families, a failed summit would be a devastating blow, extinguishing what many see as their best hope for freedom. The failure to secure a deal would leave the region on a knife’s edge, with a protracted war, a fractured U.S.-Israel alliance, and no clear path forward.